Reality is moving at roughly 65–75% of the pace the AI 2027 scenario predicted. The direction is real; the deadline is slipping.
Loading…Build with today’s agents, keep a human at the important decisions, and plan for a slower but still compounding curve.
↗The forecast is a planning input, not a countdown clock. Use the current evidence to choose the next useful move.
The top line is what AI 2027 wrote. The bottom line is the same story re-projected using the authors’ own slowdown window.
1.0× means exactly on the scenario’s schedule. The point is not one magic number; it’s where the pattern is holding or breaking.
Concrete calls from the scenario’s 2025 chapters, translated into the question a founder actually needs answered: how much should I trust this forecast?
| Prediction | AI 2027 said | Reality | Verdict |
|---|
AGI Watch is not here to sell certainty. It is here to make the next business decision less abstract.